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Tendances récentes des facteurs contribuant au risque de submersion sur les côtes atlantiques françaises

Abstract - Recent Trends for Flooding Risk-related factors on the Atlantic coasts of France
This study summarizes preliminary results obtained in the framework of the DISCOBOLE Project, that aims at estimating the long-term evolution of certain consequences of climate change, in order to improve the design and the management of maritime constructions. The mean sea level tends to increase more or less everywhere along the French Atlantic coasts. However, the rise is greater than average at Saint-Jean-de-Luz, Sables-d'Olonne and Le Conquet, suggesting the occurrence of subsidence phenomena. Nevertheless, the recent climatic evolution is not unfavourable, since surge-related winds tend to decrease in frequency and speed, or to remain almost stable. The duration of low atmospheric pressure occurrences tends also to decrease. The most significant among the trends that are liable to contribute to the coastal flooding risk are summarized graphically. For other results of the project, see on the internet : http ://discobole.cetmef.equipement.gouv.fr/discobole/