Comparaison pratique de méthodes de prévision de crue. Exemple de l'Aveyron

Practical comparison of flood forecast methods. Example of the Aveyron River

Institut de mécanique des fluides de l'Institut national polytechnique de Toulouse

Abstract

The main part of the studies consists of comparing the forecast flow rate values obtained by numerical simulation of the values actually assessed during the occurrence of about thirty floods on the River Aveyron. Deliberately, the foreccast algorithms tested are simple yet numerous. The comparison criteria used are the the standard deviation of values provided during a flood and the error on the maximum flow. An improvement is being sought according to three concepts : the use of the Kalman non-quantized filtering method, continuous competition of methods during floods and the mixing of result as regards several additional methods. Within the scope of this study and with the collaboration of hydrologist students and qualified forecasters, two forecast experiments have been made so as to be able to understand more of the mental mechanisms of weather forecasts with a view to setting up an expert system.