La prise en compte des incertitudes dans l'estimation du coût des dommages dûs aux inondations

Including uncertainties while estimating damage cost due to flood

¹ ENPC, CEREVE
² Direction départementale de l'agriculture et de la forêt de l'Isère

Abstract

Expected damage cost reduction estimations due to flood control reservoirs on the river Loire are presented in this paper. The estimated dammage costs are the direct damages to housing (buildings and their content), and direct and indirect damages to activities including the agricultural activity. Afer a short description of the method used and the results obtained, a particular focus is put on the evaluation and analysis of the uncertainties in the damage cost estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that refinements in the description of the land use in the flooded area or in the relations between flooding characteristics and elementary loss costs do not guaranty a more precise damage cost estimation. Moreover, the spreading of the mean annual cost distributions obtained is mainly influenced by the uncertainties in the flood return periods. Neverthe1ess these results depend on the estimation method used and on the case study, and must be confirmed by other studies of the same type.