Scénarios de changement climatique et impacts sur l'hydrologie

Climate change scenarios and their hydrological impacts

Météo-France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse

Abstract

The studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change due to the perturbation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere, exhibit a great diversity of methods. This diversity is a consequence of the difficulty of the climate scenario construction at the scale of hydrological models and of the difficulty in the representation of the statistical characteristics of extreme events. Beyond the influence of the methodologies, the results of hydrological impact studies remain conditioned by the quality of the used climate scenarios, in particular precipitation change in mean and variability. The issue of uncertainties integrotion in the whole impact assessment process is a new one that the scientific community need to address, to answer to the questioning ofthe stakeholder community.