Les valeurs rares et extrêmes dans la gestion des risques d’inondation aux Pays-Bas

Rare and extreme events in the management of flooding risks in the Netherlands

Université Technique de Delft & WL | Delft Hydraulics Rotterdamseweg 185, B.P. 177, 2600 MH DELFT, Les Pays-Bas

Auteur de correspondance : erik.mosselman@wldelft.nl

Abstract

Rare and extreme events in the management of flooding risks in the Netherlands. After the devastating flooding of 1953, the Dutch decided to base their protection against the water on an analysis of probabilities of flooding and potential damage in case of flooding. The law now prescribes that the country be protected against storm surges with a probability of 1/10,000 per year and against floods from the Rhine with a probability of 1/1,250 per year. The rareness of these events necessitates extrapolations, that strongly depend on the selection of a statistical model and the knowledge of the relevant physical processes. This communication presents some examples in the context of flooding risk management in the Netherlands.