Les procédures de décision en temps réel pour la prévision des crues

Real time decision procedures relating to flood forecasting

¹ Ingénieur des Ponts et Chaussées
² Ingénieur du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts CERGRENE Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées

Abstract

This article describes with the help of application examples how it is possible to provide an elaborated forecast from the use of simulation models and various real-time decision procedures. Correction forecast errors via the analysis of the error stochastic process is currently used. Model parameter filtering is used in special cases and its application field has been stated by many undertakings during these last ten years. More recently, procedures known as multimodels have been introduced. They involve either deciding to replace the current model in the case of failure or to combine the results with a weighting suited to the current state of the system at the time of forecast. These recent methods are presented here with more details.