Réflexions sur l'utilisation des longues séries d'observations climatologiques dans le cadre de l'étude du climat et de son évolution

Reflections on the use of long series of climatological observations as part of the study of climate and its changes

EDF, Division technique générale, 37 rue Diderot, B.P. 41, Grenoble Cedex

Abstract

Over the last few years, the general public, politicians and governments of the industrialized countries have become very aware of changes in climate through the media which have been reporting and amplifying the results and hypotheses of scientific research. The main interest of this information is to heighten awareness of the growing interaction between mans' activities and his continental, aquatic, glacial, oceanic and atmospheric environment, yet it must remain objective if it is to remain credible; this without plunging into sensational doomsday type stories. It is obvious that the precise and fine study undertaken on past changes in climate is fundamental in order to understand its present state and draw up possible scenarios for the future: all this in trying to take into account the effect of man wilh increased demographic growth over the last 200 years and in particular since 1950. How can one discern from 100 years of observations of the normal movements of a stable climate, possible premises of a brutal climatic break due to man or to a cause that is beyond him?