Sélection de situations météorologiques analogues : applications en prévision opérationnelle de précipitations et en évolution climatique

Analog sorting of meteorological patterns: applications to operational precipitation forecast and climate evolution studies

Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble

Abstract

This paper summarises an adaptation method of meteorological model outputs via a pattern recognition technique based on an analog search. Its main application consists in providing medium term quantitative precipitation forecasts, both timely and spatially adapted for flood management up to 4 or 5 days ahead. During the MAP experiment, it has been applied in real time to some North Italian catchments (e.g. the Toce basin), and compared successfully, in terms of QPFs, with the outputs of the French model ARPEGE for the next 3 days. Furthermore, some applications can be found in climate research, like for the downscaling of GCM simulations. We address more particularly its diagnostic capacity to detect potential recent climatic evolutions, like changes in the frequency of occurrence of different synoptic situation.