Évaluation des possibles impacts du changement climatique par modélisation distribuée (projets Gewex-Rhône et Gicc-Rhône)

Evaluation of the possible impacts of climatic change by distributed models (Gewex-Rhône et Gicc-Rhône projects)

Cemagref, Unité de recherches Hydrologie-Hydraulique

Abstract

Expected climate change over the Rhone basin is investigated using the output of several GCM runs, two of them having quite a good resolution over Europe. This change has been interpolated to the meso-scale and superimposed to observed atmospheric data in grid form. Atmospheric fields have been used as input to pre-established distributed models of the Rhone basin and tumed into discharges and other surface hydrology indicators. Assessment of some possible climate change impacts is presently ongoing. The use of several GCM and hydrological models enables a preliminary assessment of some of the uncertainties embedded in the results.