Méthode de maximisation : estimation des crues maximales probables (CMP)

Maximization method: Estimation of maximum probable flood (PMF)

SNC-Lavalin, Montréal, Canada 455, boul. René-Lévesque Ouest, Montréal (Québec) Canada H2Z 1Z3

Auteur de correspondance : annie.dumas@snclavalin.com

Abstract

Among all existing methods for estimating extreme floods, the probable maximum flood method is the safest, since it is a flood that has a theoretical probability of exceedance of zero. The PMF is the flood that can reasonably be expected from the most severe combination of hydrometeorological conditions physically possible (rain, snow cover and temperature) and it is evaluated from meteorological data maximized by deterministic methods. For large dams and for those whose failure could cause important economic or life losses, the design flood is often defined as the PMF. This text proposes a definition of the probable maximum flood, a glance at its calculation method, and an assessment of its advantages, disadvantages, and limits.