L'estimation probabiliste des durées de service futures des barrages en Tunisie. Essai de caractérisation et proposition d'une formule régionale

Service duration probabilistic estimation of Tunisia dams. Characterisation and regional formula proposition.

Maître-assistant en Génie Hydraulique, Université de Tunis 1

Abstract

This paper is a contribution for estimating the service duration of the dams in Tunisia. The method used include all the information cumulated about the theme. Specially, the campaign for measuring the deposition of sediments in some dams, and some annual series of suspended particles transport observed in Tunisia. The series of annual particles transport are particularly rare, and of a too small size for statistics treatment ; this research proposed to avoid this difficulty of the limited body of the observed sample, by a stochastic generation over several consecutive years of many series of solid supplies (1000 years). In this generated series, which represented faithfully the observations, but with large representation, it's possible to simulate many annual series of solid supplies, for analysing their statistical distribution, specially the distribution of solid supplies cumulated over many decennial years, corresponding to the average life time of dams (50 years, 100 years, ...). This approach led us to set up a regional formula, which may help to include the probable average of the dam life time (calulation of confidence interval for probable life time).