Evolution du niveau moyen de la mer et fréquence des tempêtes : certitudes et incertitudes

Evolution of the mean sea level and frequency of the storms certainty and uncertainties

CNRS - Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, 1 place Aristide Briand, 92 Meudon-Bellevue

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Abstract

Statistical analysis of a data base with ride-gauge and meteorological records from the French Atlantic coast enables to define recent and present-day trends of variation for MSL, surges and the related meteorological contribution. Climate variability is for the moment in favour of a decrease in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. However the highest storm surges of the last decades did not occur at the time of spring high tide and such a chance may not necessarily continue in the near future.